As a mature (or at least maturing) industry, I expect (as you seem to agree) to see RPGs go the route of other hard-copy hobbies or pasttimes like books or comic books. We’ll end up with a small number of viable, comparatively large publishers and many small presses which are essentially hobbies or a pursuit of artistic worth for their owners. We’re most the way there already. The d20 boom gave a number of the smaller publishers a shot at doing some real numbers, but with that over we probably won’t see another cycle like that until D&D 4.0 hits, assuming that will be released under the Open Gaming License too.

I don’t think RPGs will be marginalized as much as tabletop wargames though. With a publisher as large as Wizards and a game as pervasive as D&D, I think RPGs (even if mostly just D&D) will continue for a long time.

As a mature (or at least maturing) industry, I expect (as you seem to agree) to see RPGs go the route of other hard-copy hobbies or pasttimes like books or comic books. We’ll end up with a small number of viable, comparatively large publishers and many small presses which are essentially hobbies or a pursuit of artistic worth for their owners. We’re most the way there already. The d20 boom gave a number of the smaller publishers a shot at doing some real numbers, but with that over we probably won’t see another cycle like that until D&D 4.0 hits, assuming that will be released under the Open Gaming License too.

I don’t think RPGs will be marginalized as much as tabletop wargames though. With a publisher as large as Wizards and a game as pervasive as D&D, I think RPGs (even if mostly just D&D) will continue for a long time.

The largest section of RPG players, those who like the “bust down the door, grab the treasure, power up” style of play, will have all moved on to computer games. They’re simply more efficient, more entertaining, and more convenient for that style of play.

Deprived of the income from those players, RPG publishers will really feel the hurt. Most will go out of business. Those that remain will be hobbyist publishers like those working the Forge audience, or those who can cater to an established game’s fan base (Ars Magica, Legend of the Five Rings, etc.) until they die off. And since the publishers’ lifespans aren’t going to be any longer than their fans’ lifespans, that should work out reasonably well.

The largest section of RPG players, those who like the “bust down the door, grab the treasure, power up” style of play, will have all moved on to computer games. They’re simply more efficient, more entertaining, and more convenient for that style of play.

Deprived of the income from those players, RPG publishers will really feel the hurt. Most will go out of business. Those that remain will be hobbyist publishers like those working the Forge audience, or those who can cater to an established game’s fan base (Ars Magica, Legend of the Five Rings, etc.) until they die off. And since the publishers’ lifespans aren’t going to be any longer than their fans’ lifespans, that should work out reasonably well.